Features

No surprise, consumer confidence drops

The Associated Press
Wednesday April 25, 2001

NEW YORK — Consumer confidence dropped sharply in April, underscoring increasing fears among Americans about their jobs and the economy. 

The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 109.2, down from 116.9 in March. The April survey was completed before the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates for the fourth time this year. 

But economists played down the timing, saying much of the April drop reflected a souring assessment of business conditions and job prospects. The index has declined for most of the past year, but consumers’ assessments of business conditions and job prospects had remained strong – until April. 

“This plunge ... is a significant turn for the worse, to my way of thinking, because what it’s saying to me is that the cumulative affect of layoffs and rising energy prices is now really reaching into people’s pocketbooks,” said David Orr, chief economist for First Union Corp. in Charlotte, N.C. 

Orr said such immediate concerns won’t be eased by a cut in interest rates, an assessment seconded by Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. A similar surprise rate cut in January had little effect on consumer confidence figures for the following month. 

“It’s clear that consumers have begun to worry about employment trends and these concerns are gnawing away at consumer confidence,” Franco said. 

In the new survey, 27.9 percent of consumers rated current business conditions as good, down from 33 percent in March. Another 13.3 percent rated conditions as bad, up from 10.8 percent. 

On employment, 14.2 percent of those surveyed said jobs are “hard to get,” up from 12.6 percent last month. Those saying jobs are plentiful fell from 43.8 percent to 40 percent. 

The Conference Board index, based on a monthly survey of some 5,000 U.S. households, is considered a key indicator because consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity. The index compares results to its base year, 1985, when it stood at 100. 

The April confidence survey was completed April 17, the day before the Fed’s latest cut in interest rates, Franco said. The Fed has cut rates a total of 2 percentage points this year. 

Analysts believe Fed officials clearly had investors in mind in the timing of last week’s cut, hoping to bolster consumer confidence, which has sagged as Americans watched trillions of dollars of paper wealth evaporate over the past year in a stock market swoon. 

But April’s confidence figure shows that consumers remain doubtful and are likely to restrain their purchases, economists said. That, together with lower spending by businesses, could slow an economic rebound. 

“That’s not good news,” said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. “It’s consistent with this notion that the economy at best may recover in the third or fourth quarter, but that it won’t be much of one.” 

The April drop returned consumer confidence to the same level it was at in February, reflecting increasing pessimism about both current and future business conditions. 

Economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland Pa., said: “This is a warning sign to the Fed that the economy is not yet out of the woods.” 

On the Net: http://www.conferenceboard.org