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The recent increase in hostility, posturing and backbiting between the two City Council factions could be the first stirrings of a mayoral election that is still more than a year away. 

Some council watchers say the sharp rhetoric, which has characterized recent council debates between progressives and moderates over redistricting and an anti-U. S. bombing resolution is a sign that incumbents are wrangling for advantage over potential challengers in the November 2002 elections. 

Moderate Mayor Shirley Dean said last week she would run for a third term. Progressive Councilmember Linda Maio may be another likely candidate, although she has not publicly stated she will challenge Dean. 

So far Dean, who will be 67 next month, is the only elected official on the council who has announced a re-election campaign, although she isn’t saying much else other than she is confident she will win.  

“Yes I am running, but I haven’t made any campaign plans yet and haven’t given any thought to what the issues will be.” she said. “I’m totally confident but I’m going to run hard because that’s the way I am.” 

Dean’s unofficial announcement ends any speculation that she was planning a bid for Dion Aroner’s State Assembly seat. Aroner will be ousted by term limits in November 2002. 

Maio, 58, will not admit she’s a candidate for mayor, but one can hear the echoes of political barnstorming when she talks about the coming election. 

“The city needs new leadership,” Maio said. “The city needs to be worked on, not superficial work, I mean really worked on.” 

One reason for Maio’s reluctance to announce her bid for mayor might be that she will have to give up her seat on the City Council. According to the city clerk, incumbents cannot run for two seats at the same time. Maio’s seat as representative of District 1 will also be on the ballot next year. 

Other councilmembers up for re-election are progressive councilmembers Dona Spring and Kriss Worthington in districts 4 and 7 and moderate Councilmember Polly Armstrong in District 8. Currently, the council’s five progressives hold a slim majority on the nine-member council.  

Another issue for potential mayoral candidates to consider is money. Mayoral elections in Berkeley are expensive. According to city campaign records, Dean spent nearly $200,000 on her campaign in 1998. That’s no small amount when the Berkeley Election Reform Act limits political contributions to $250 per person.  

Dean, who has traditionally enjoyed the support of property owners, developers and business interests, said she is not worried about raising money for the campaign.  

“I’ve never had a problem raising money,” she said. 

On the other hand, Maio said progressives have a tougher time filling their campaign coffers. But she said progressive supporters make up for money shortages with devotion and enthusiasm. 

“Progressives are the ones who will roll up their sleeves and go door to door, block to block in a walking–talking campaign,” she said.  

Maio said a potential campaign issue might be development, especially in the western part of town, which has seen thousands of square-feet of small manufacturing and artisan space converted to offices. 

“Artists, musicians and crafts people are the life’s blood of Berkeley,” Maio said. “We received a wake-up call from San Francisco where they lost so many artists and nonprofits because development overran them. We have to see how we can keep these people in Berkeley.” 

Dean said a staff report describes claims of offices taking over west Berkeley exaggerated. She added that it would be hard to run against her record as a supporter of the arts. Dean pointed to her work in establishing the Downtown Arts District and the West Berkeley Artisan District. 

“If Councilmember Maio makes a bid for mayor, then I’m sure we’ll discuss all of these issues and discuss them at length,” Dean said.