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With absentee ballots counted, 8th District City Council candidate Gordon Wozniak has inched closer to winning an outright victory in the Nov. 5 general election and avoiding a runoff against his nearest competitor, UC Berkeley graduate student Andy Katz. 

But with only “provisional ballots” left to count – ballots expected to favor Katz – Wozniak may not win the 45 percent of the vote he needs to avoid a showdown with the student candidate. 

Provisional ballots go to citizens who show up at a polling station on Election Day and believe they are registered to vote, but do not appear on the roster of voters. Often, said City Clerk Sherry Kelly, those voters have moved since the last election and failed to re-register. They are allowed to re-register on Election Day and cast a provisional ballot at their new polling places, she said. 

Both candidates say students, because they frequently move, likely cast a large number of the provisional ballots. In the general election, students overwhelmingly backed Katz. 

The Alameda County Registrar of Voters will count an undetermined number of 8th District provisional ballots this week and is expected to issue an update on Friday and certify the general election Nov. 27. 

As of Monday, with the absentee ballots counted, Wozniak had 2,094 votes or 44.4 percent of the total – just 29 votes short of the 45 percent threshold needed to win. Katz had 1,565 votes, or 32.3 percent. Human rights consultant Anne Wagley was third, with 19.7 percent of the vote and journeyman Carlos Estrada finished fourth, with 2.6 percent, in a four-way race to succeed retiring Councilmember Polly Armstrong. 

If Wozniak does not reach the 45 percent threshold with the provisional ballots, he will compete with Katz in a run-off by mail. The city clerk, anticipating the runoff, mailed ballots to 8th District voters at the end of last week. Voters have until Dec. 3 to return them. 

Katz, backed by Berkeley’s progressive political faction, would give progressives a 7-2 edge on City Council if elected. If Wozniak succeeds the moderate Armstrong, he will keep the balance at 6-3 in favor of the progressives. 

Wozniak said he would be disappointed if, as expected, he falls just short of an outright victory in the general election. But he predicts a win in the runoff. 

“It’s frustrating to come so close and not win it in the general election,” he said. “It’s also reassuring that I did come in first and over 11 percentage points ahead of my nearest competitor. That makes us confident.” 

Katz countered that he could close the gap in the runoff, predicting that he would pick up the support of voters who backed Wagley, the third-place finisher in the general election. 

Two weeks ago Wagley said she would likely endorse one of the two candidates in the runoff. But, after meeting with Katz and Wozniak in recent days, she has decided to remain neutral. 

Wagley, who ran as a centrist alternative to the progressives and moderates, told the Daily Planet Monday she was reluctant to side with either camp. She also said neither Katz nor Wozniak have placed enough emphasis on her pet concern, open public process. 

Wozniak, like Katz, predicted that he will win the vote of former Wagley supporters. Wozniak noted that much of Wagley’s support came from residential areas where he fared well and predicted that homeowners will naturally gravitate to his moderate candidacy in the runoff. 

Katz countered that several of Wagley’s prominent endorsers, like progressive Board of Education member John Selawsky, are now backing him. 

Another key factor in the race will be voter turnout. Runoff elections typically attract about half the voters of a general election, according to the city clerk, and both campaigns are busy telling supporters that a runoff is likely and urging them to mail in their ballots.  

Wozniak, a retired scientist and member of the Planning Commission, says experience is one reason voters should support him. 

“I’ve lived in the district for 30 years. I’m well-acquainted with the problems and think I could fairly represent the district,” he said. “Andy, I think, hasn’t lived in Berkeley very long – he’s been here only as a student.” 

Katz, who serves on the Zoning Adjustments Board, says he has been attending city meetings for four years and has more experience than Wozniak on issues like housing and traffic that have dominated the campaign. 

Contact reporter at scharfenberg@berkeleydailyplanet.net