Features

Column: The Public Eye: Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign Already Underway By BOB BURNETT

Tuesday July 12, 2005

It will be three years until the next Democratic convention, but Washington insiders not only expect Hillary Clinton to run for president, they believe that she will easily garner the nomination. According to veteran prognosticator Charlie Cook, Hillary is far ahead of the other contenders, both in terms of money raised and support among the party faithful. First, she has to win re-election to her New York Senate seat; if she wins that race handily in 2006, then her historic presidential nomination seems assured. Anticipating Hillary, conservatives have already launched a no-holds-barred assault on the former first lady. 

Few question Sen. Clinton’s intelligence or determination. The standard objection to her candidacy is that she is “a polarizing figure”—that for every voter who is a fan, there is another who detests her. Many feel that the polarizing label sells Hillary short. Charlie Cook observed that Hillary’s constituents have found her to be hardworking and pragmatic. Recent New York polls showed the Senator with favorability ratings in the 60-70 percent range, and holding a thirty-point lead over her likely opponents. 

Outside New York, many voters continue to have reservations about the former first lady. While some of their hesitation may be due to sexist bias, the most likely source is her enigmatic relationship with Bill Clinton.  

Even in Europe, the former first lady is a controversial figure. In May, at a dinner party in Great Britain, several conservative Brits volunteered that they did not like Hillary Clinton. Although they knew almost nothing about her, they had negative feelings based upon the fact that Ms. Clinton stayed married to Bill after the Monica Lewinsky scandal. They believed Hillary did this in order to further her political career and described her as an “opportunist.” Many American voters share these sentiments. 

Roughly one-third of the electorate dislikes Sen. Clinton and probably won’t vote for her under any circumstance. Assuming that another third will vote for whomever the Democrats nominate, that leaves a final third that Hillary has to win over. Republican leaders are already worried about the possibility that the former First Lady might shake her “difficult woman” moniker and broaden her base of support. Predictably, they have launched their favorite weapon, the negative hit piece based upon interviews with questionable sources. 

In June, Edward Klein’s book The Truth About Hillary: What She Knew, When She Knew It, and How Far She’ll Go to Become President was published. In 272 pages, long on innuendo and woefully short on journalism, Klein levels two charges at the senator: she may be a lesbian (Gadzooks!) and she is ambitious (Sacre Bleu!). While universally panned, Klein’s book has crept near the top of the best-seller list. No doubt it is only the first of a series of attacks on Ms. Clinton, part of a carefully orchestrated Republican strategy to keep alive the iconic image of Hillary as a person of poor moral character because she had the temerity to “stand by her man” and now seeks her own starring role. 

Hillary Clinton has wisely decided not to respond to Klein’s book. Instead her campaign is methodically gathering support, gaining momentum for the races in 2006 and 2008. In the course of this effort, the junior Senator from New York is carefully establishing her positions on issues ranging from abortion to zydeco. 

Is Ms. Clinton a liberal or a centrist? Does she have original ideas or is she content to cannibalize those of others? Will her campaign be poll-driven or will she have the chutzpah to take an independent stand on strategic issues? In due course we will learn the answers to the many questions that rank-and-file Democrats have about their probable nominee. 

In the meantime, it would tell us a lot about the “real” Hillary if she would help her party by providing some of the leadership it desperately needs. At this moment in time, the Democratic Party is struggling to find its identity. A recent Democracy Corps poll found that while voters had lost confidence in President Bush, Democrats had fallen even further out of favor—only 38 percent of the electorate had positive feelings about them versus 43 percent for the Republicans. Veteran Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg attributed this decline to the public perception that Democrats have “no core set of convictions or point of view.” Most voters are clear that the Dems oppose the policies of the Bush administration but unsure of what they offer to replace them with. At the moment, Democrats are best characterized as the Party whose unifying slogan is, “Just say no.” 

Based upon her status as the party’s probable nominee, and with her own Senate reelection seemingly assured, it is not asking too much for Hillary to help the party get its act together for 2006. Whether she does this, or instead, plays it’s safe and lets others carry the load until 2008, will tell us a lot about Ms. Clinton. Is she is a real leader, a rock the party can rebuild around, or yet another self-centered celebrity candidate? 

 

Bob Burnett is a Berkeley writer and activist. He can be reached at bobburnett@comcast.net.