State Assembly District 15 - Beckles Second in Districtwide Results as of June 10, 2018, 5:43 p.m.; Kalb Not Far Behind

Rob Wrenn
Sunday June 10, 2018 - 07:34:00 PM

100.0% (341 of 341) precincts are reporting, but many are partial totals.

Buffy Wicks (Dem) 25,279 votes, 31.5 %

Jovanka Beckles (Dem) 12,135 votes,15.1 %

Dan Kalb (Dem) 11,851 votes, 14.8 %

The numbers are new for the State Web site but nothing new has been counted, the state has just caught up; the county totals are the same as they were at 8 p.m. Friday.

Because Contra Costa County (CC) turnout is now at 29.6%, while Alameda County (AC) turnout is at 25.1%, and because it’s reported that there are a lot more uncounted ballots countywide in AC than countywide in CC and because more AD-15 voters live in AC than in CC, I would expect Kalb to overtake Beckles when the rest of the vote is counted.

In AC, he’s at 19.4% to 13.9% for Beckles. This is an improvement for Beckles because it was at the end of election night 19.3% for Kalb and 13.2% for Beckles in AC, but it’s not a huge improvement.

In CC, it’s 13.9% for Beckles and 7.6% for Kalb, only a slightly bigger margin than in AC.

Of course, provisionals might favor Jovanka, so after Votes by Mail are counted the remaining provisionals might swing things back a bit for Beckles. For Beckles to win, I think the remaining AC votes have to be disproportionately from areas where she did well. Votes handed in at the polls are, I assume, counted after votes that were mailed in. If there's a late shift toward Beckles, maybe she’ll end up the winner. But if I had to bet, my money would be on Kalb.