The Votes are In

Rob Wrenn
Wednesday November 07, 2018 - 04:39:00 PM

Early results of yesterday's election are still holding today. My guess is that there are about 20,000 ballots still to be counted from Berkeley. None of the Berkeley races are close enough where counting of the additional ballots will result in any changes to the outcome in Berkeley.

23,350 votes have been reported pro or con Measure O. 85-90% of people who voted probably voted one way or another on that issue. In 2014 a total of a bit more than 40,000 ballots were cast. My guess is that turnout was up somewhat but not by a huge amount this year (based on poor turnout in District 7). So if say 45,000 ballots were cast and if we assume that about 10% blank voted on Measure O then, using rough numbers,about 20,000 votes would remain. If total turnout were 50,000 then more like 25,000 votes remain uncounted. The Registrar guessed that countywide about half the votes remained to be counted or 250,000, so 20-25 thousand in Berkeley is quite possible.

I’m confident that Kate Harrison is safely re-elected and that Rashi Kesarwani has defeated Igor Tregub. There are some very close congressional and state legislative races, and also the contest for Superintendent of Education, where counting of additional ballots in other counties around the state could dislodge the current frontrunner. 

With early vote by mail and all votes cast at the polls in Berkeley counted, Measures O & P won easily, with 76% so far for O and 71% so far for P (despite heavy real estate spending against it). Measures Q & R also passed. 

Kate Harrison was re-elected with 53% of votes counted to date. 

Rigel Robinson won in District 7 with another poor student turnout (less than 1000 votes counted so far). 

Lori Droste won in District 8, 56% to 31% for Mary Kay Lacey in votes counted so far). 

Rashi Kesarwani has won in District 1 defeating Igor Tregub 46% to 34% in first choice votes, with a plurality of Margo Schueler’s second choice votes going to Rashi. 

Jenny Wong was easily elected auditor. 

The Rent Board slate won with Soli Alpert, who was trailing in the early VBM count, defeating Judy Hunt for fifth place. 

There are still many ballots to be counted as of this morning; Alameda County turnout so far is only 29%.There are probably at least 20,000 more votes in Berkeley to count. But the outcome of local city of Berkeley elections is not going to change. Later vote by mail ballots have in previous elections not been very different from those counted by the end of election night. No local race in Berkeley is close enough for there to be any real chance the that outcome will change when all the ballots are counted. 

Jovanka Beckles was defeated by Buffy Wicks. Current Alameda County count 56.5% for Wicks. Jovanka was also behind in Contra Costa County. District wide the vote was 56% to 44% for Wicks. There is no real chance that count of remaining Vote By Mail will change this outcome.  

Josh Harder is narrowly behind Republican Jeff Denham in the 10th Congressional District in votes counted so far:55,414 for Harder; 56,701 for Denham, or a margin of just 1300 votes so far.  

In statewide races, Marshall Tuck is ahead of Tony Thurmond 50.6% to 49.4%. Tuck was backed by the same Govern for California group that backed Wicks. It’s possible that Thurmond could win when all the votes are counted. 

Prop 10 was crushed, losing 62% to 38% so far. It won a majority only in SF county.  

Progressives did well in SF with Prop C passing; it will tax big businesses to help the homeless. Progressive supervisor candidates also winning: https://48hills.org/2018/11/haney-far-ahead-mar-still-leading-and-prop-c-has-won-big/ 

Propositions 1 and 2 passed so there will be some state money for affordable housing. 

State results here: https://vote.sos.ca.gov 

Alameda County and Berkeley results here: https://www.acgov.org/rovresults/236/index.htm