Features

Economists urge Fed to cut rates

The Associated Press
Thursday March 15, 2001

NEW YORK — With corporate America unable to quiet its drumbeat of earnings and revenue warnings, economists and analysts say a dramatic rate cut by the Federal Reserve is needed to jolt sagging financial markets and restore investor confidence. 

Investors looking for indications that markets are healthy should wait for a string of solid days on Wall Street, analysts said. 

Worries of an international economic slowdown dragged down stocks Wednesday. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 317 points, closing below the 10,000 level for the first time since October. 

While the Fed is expected to slash interest rates by one-half point next Tuesday, Wall Street is seeking a fatter rate cut to trigger a rebound. 

Stock market declines “usually end when investor frustration is at its highest level,” said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. “What is historically an encouraging sign is a market recovery on big volume. We’ve had some rally attempts, but the sentiment is still very negative.” 

Ricky Harrington, an analyst at Wachovia Securities, said a market rebound will not occur until investor sentiment is downright “pessimistic.” 

The dominant feeling among investors “has moved from complacency to concern,” he said. 

While investors remain focused on pessimistic financial forecasts by some of the nation’s biggest companies, including Intel Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc., earnings reports tend to be lagging indicators and not the best way to gauge the health of the U.S. economy, said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co. 

Low unemployment and rising wages, Sohn argued, suggest the average American is in reasonable financial shape. The key, he added, is to restore consumer confidence, which fell for the fifth month in a row in February to its lowest level in more than four years. 

“The reality is not as bad as the perception,” Sohn said. 

Sohn said Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan needs to pleasantly surprise investors by cutting rates by three-quarters of a point or more. “That could not only stop the slide, but start a small rally,” Sohn said. 

But not all economists believe reversing Wall Street’s slide is as simple as a shift in monetary policy. 

William V. Sullivan Jr., a senior economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, said evidence of a rebound in corporate profits is essential. And Steven Milunovich, the top strategist for technology investing at Merrill Lynch, believes the outlook for a near-term recovery in corporate profits remains grim. 

“We’re pretty much writing off 2001,” Milunovich said. “So you’re looking at 2002.”