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They were asking the question of the hour, working the crowds on the corner of Shattuck Ave. and Center St. Saturday morning, Mike Dilauro and Anthony Redic made their appeal: “Can you spare some change?” 

In a recession, people are unlikely to dig into their pockets and give the guy on the corner a break, mostly because they need a break themselves. 

Plus, an economic slump means the shoppers and tourists who are most likely to give simply are not there. 

“Since Sept. 11, my profits have decreased 75 percent,” said Gary, a 58-year-old saxophonist who has played mellow jazz on Berkeley street corners for the past two years. “They’re still down.”  

But this past week, economic analysts have suggested that Bay Area residents could soon spare a dime. 

National research groups such as the Conference Board and the Institute of Supply Management issued reports saying that they expect economic expansion. 

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that unemployment went down 0.2 percent from December to January.  

On Wednesday, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) announced that the Bay Area economy is likely to recover by the third quarter of 2002. 

ABAG research director and economist Paul Fassinger said his index numbers were encouraging. 

Their index is derived from historical data about the last recession in the early 90s, national economic indicators and indicators specific to this nine-county region, including local construction activity and orders for semiconductors.  

“The index was slightly up for November,” explained Fassinger. “This suggests to us the recession is starting to end. It’s a good prediction for six to nine months down the road.”  

Although he cautioned that the recovery will not bring back the fast, tech-driven growth of the late 90s, he remained optimistic, saying that tourism and financial services businesses, whose revenues are tied to cycles of contraction and expansion, should be the first to get back on their feet. Experts at University of California Berkeley’s Haas School of Business disagree.  

Research by Ken Rosen, a real estate professor, and Amanda Bishop, a research associate, suggests that the Bay Area economy is unlikely to recover before 2003. Their numbers point to a deep recession where unemployment figures are still down and the housing market is still a buyer’ s market.  

“It won’t feel good until next year,” Rosen has said.  

Berkeley’s deputy city manager does not put much stock in any of these predictions, however. “The down turn in the economy doesn’t affect us the way it affects other cities,” said Phil Kamlarz. 

Though ABAG’s predictions rely on better numbers for certain industries like the technology and automotive industries, Kamlarz said that Berkeley’s fortunes do not change with these tides. “We have a fairly stable revenue base in the city of Berkeley,” said Kamlarz. Berkeley’s large population of university students ensures a steady stream of revenues in the downtown area and the city does not rely on high-tech growth as much as Silicon Valley cities do.  

Even if more people are buying cars because of low interest rates, Berkeley’ s economy does not necessarily feel a boost. “We don’t have major auto malls or shopping centers for revenue generation,” he added. “There is no single retail economic driver. Our economy is very diverse.”  

Indeed, businesses like the furniture store Scandinavian Designs have weathered the recession fairly well. According to Store Manager Geir Fredriksen, revenue at Scandinavian Designs in January of 2002 was down only 1 to 2 percent from January 2001.  

“Certainly we felt the change,” he said. “But it didn’t have as much impact on our business as a when Ikea opened two years ago.” The cheap-chic home furnishings giant took a larger chunk out of their profits than the recession of the last several months.  

But the recession has definitely slimmed the wallets of others in Berkeley. 

B.E., who has been driving a cab in the area for 14 years, says he has fewer and shorter fares these days.  

The Clinton years were flush, but, he said, “It’s been worse after Sept. 11. With all the lay-offs, people are not traveling. They’re trying to spend less and cut costs.”  

The increase in the number of cab companies and the growth of airport shuttles, he adds, makes this recession even harder to bear than the lean times of the past. If the economy is getting better, it isn’t necessarily because there are more jobs in the Bay Area.  

Fassinger admitted that unemployment in the area has just leveled off, but not necessarily decreased.  

The career advisers at Worksource One-Stop Career Center say their offices are still congested. Adrian Harper, whose organization Building Opportunities for Self-Sufficiency (BOSS) works with Worksource, keeps seeing 50 to 60 people a day walk into the Addison St. office. 

“Since December, it’s never been more crowded,” he said.  

Harper noted that the recession has hit everyone, changing the demographics of the job seekers.  

“It used to be primarily black people. Now that’s changed,” he said, pointing to black, brown and white faces at the computer terminals in the research room. “There’s an older population, too.”  

Rosemary Prior, who was at Worksource on Friday afternoon, agreed. “It’s a particular challenge for the mature, experienced worker,” she said.  

Many job seekers are used to holding a solid, well-paying job and do not want to start at entry-level all over again. 

Although Prior emphasized that she is “very thankful” for having landed a part-time minimum-wage position at the Berkeley Repertory Theater, she is still looking for other opportunities. The Berkeley resident, who has a background in non-profits and eventually hopes to do faith-based motivational-speaking, says she is trying to stay positive in the face of grim prospects.  

“I haven’t seen any improvements,” said Prior. “I’m not into the hype.”  

Harper, who has also been monitoring the other BOSS offices in Oakland and Hayward, hasn’t seen improvements either.  

“If it’s gotten better,” said Harper, “I’d like to know which city it’s in.”  

Mendoza, who used to work for a non-profit agency, was willing to commute anywhere, even to East Palo Alto from her San Francisco residence. She got a call from one of the firms, Campus Connections three weeks into January saying that it had placed her with a small accounting firm.  

“I was about to take anything,” said Mendoza, who was worried that her unemployment checks were about the run out. “But this came at the right time.”  

Some Berkeley residents have not fared too badly in January either. Nate Byerley, who says his girlfriend, a massage therapist, just found a steady job in San Francisco, had only been on the hunt for ten days before he found something. Shortly after he stopped working on an Americorps project, he landed a full-time position with a decorative landscaping company and was able to bargain for better terms.  

“I got to negotiate my salary because they weren’t paying me benefits,” said Byerley. “They wanted to pay me $12 an hour, but I got them to pay me $14.50.” 

Those who have found work haven’t necessarily found their dream job or even a job with the full buffet of benefits, but they are relieved to have income. And, judging by the number of people with shopping bags on downtown Berkeley’s main drag on Saturday morning, they are willing to spend it.  

“People seem willing to give,” said Redic, showing the $10 in bills and coins he and Dilauro had collected in the two hours they had been standing in front of the cash machines at Wells Fargo Bank. 

“I mean, people seem to be taking out money at these machines.”