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SACRAMENTO — Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill warned Wednesday that “the fiscal situation has deteriorated” and lawmakers must make deeper-than-expected budget cuts to lift the state from its financial straits. 

State officials must carve $5 billion more than planned from the current and next year’s budgets or the problem could snowball in the coming years, Hill said, delivering an in-depth review of Gov. Gray Davis’ 2002-03 budget proposal. 

“It’s going to be a very tough year,” said Assembly budget committee chairwoman Jenny Oropeza, D-Long Beach. 

Hill, the Legislature’s chief fiscal analyst, predicts a steeper dip in stock and capital gains revenues and steeper education costs than Davis. 

And she suggests dozens of solutions — including raising college tuition, mothballing a state women’s prison and scrapping one state holiday — to make up the difference. 

Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson, D-Culver City, issued a statement Wednesday calling Hill’s news “worse than I expected.” 

“It is clear we are going to have to make painful decisions about crucial state services,” Wesson said. “Everyone is going to have to bear the pain.” 

Hill offered more than 100 suggested budget cuts, including some potentially controversial moves. 

They include closing the Northern California Women’s facility in Stockton because of declining inmate population statewide; suspending Davis’ pet performance awards program for schools with test score improvements; and increasing students fees for out-of-state and professional students at the University of California. 

She also proposes a series of legislative changes to ease prison terms, including providing early parole for some nonviolent offenders and elderly inmates. 

Oropeza said each of Hill’s suggestions “will be seriously examined and evaluated.” 

Republican leaders immediately sought to blame Davis, a Democrat who is up for re-election this year. GOP lawmakers have accused Davis for months of failing to tackle California’s budget woes quickly enough and spending recklessly when times were good. 

“We warned that there would be a cliff that we would fall off, and we have,” said Senate Republican Leader Jim Brulte of Rancho Cucamonga. 

Davis has defended his budgeting, saying he pumped up the state’s reserves and made sorely needed improvements in education, transportation and children’s health. And he has said he will not advocate raising taxes to fill the budget hole. 

Davis’ budget chief Tim Gage said he had not fully reviewed the analyst’s report, but said, “certainly they raise an appropriate caution that revenues may well be down further.” 

However, he said, the state will not have a clear picture of its financial health until May, when the governor revises his budget based on more accurate revenue calculations. 

“We just don’t know at this point,” Gage said. 

Hill’s analysis means that the state now faces a $14.5 billion budget deficit over the next 16 months, even accounting for a package of cuts approved by lawmakers late last month. 

Here’s why: The state faced a $12.5 billion shortfall in January for the remainder of this fiscal year and the next, which begins July 1. Lawmakers approved in January more than $2 billion in midyear cuts to the current budget, which also translate to $900 million more in reductions to next year’s budget because of trims made to ongoing programs. 

That left the state still facing a $9.5 billion shortfall — which Davis proposed to fix with a combination of cuts, shuffling and borrowing. 

And, Hill estimates the state must add $5 billion more to that figure because, even if all of the governor’s remedies were adopted for the current and next year, the state still would come up short. 

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On the Net: 

Hill’s analysis and proposed solutions are at http://www.lao.ca.gov. 

The governor’s budget proposal can be found at http://www.dof.ca.gov