Features

California housing market stays hot

By Simon Avery The Associated Press
Saturday August 24, 2002

LOS ANGELES — Low interest rates, strong demand and tight supply kept California’s real estate market red hot in July, with home prices soaring 16.5 percent over the same period last year. 

The median home price, the point at which half the homes sell for more and half for less, increased to a record $271,000, according to a report released Thursday by DataQuick Information Systems. 

Sales activity also surged 7.5 percent from a year ago, despite concerns raised by some experts that California’s market is ready for a correction. 

“The danger signals that would indicate that we are in a bubble are just not there,” said John Karevoll, a DataQuick analyst and author of the report. “What’s astonishing to us is the breadth of the growth across the board.” 

Put in perspective, the price gains mean a homeowner with a median-valued home has been making about $3,200 every month for the last year through the appreciation of their property. 

Many homeowners have cashed in some of those gains by refinancing their mortgages, providing an injection of cash into the economy that has held off a more serious recession. 

Several factors suggest the market will remain healthy for some time to come, Karevoll said. 

The median size of down payments relative to loans remains stable at about 15 percent, and there’s a good balance of supply and demand in all categories of the market, from entry level to luxury, he said. 

In addition, consumers are opting for a balanced mix of mortgages, from 30-year fixed rates to riskier adjustable rate mortgages that are easier to obtain. At the peak of the last boom in the late 1980s, about 60 percent of buyers chose adjustable rates. Today that figure is only 27 percent, Karevoll said. 

The market is likely to thrive for at least another year, said Christopher Cagen, director of research and analytics at First American Real Estate Solutions, a real estate information firm. 

“We are deep in a bull market, and I don’t see any reason — barring a war or other catastrophe — that the market is about to turn,” Cagen said. 

Some mortgage brokers and lenders serving buyers in high-end markets, however, warn that a downturn in their segment could be on the horizon.