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Berkeley politicians have done their best to stir up interest in an election that will determine the city’s next mayor and the height of new buildings. But despite a virtual Shirley Dean–Tom Bates road show that has included 27 debates and has both candidates admitting the race is too close to call, Berkeley voter turnout is expected to hit all-time lows. 

“Everything we know says statewide there is going to be very low turnout,” said David Mermin of Lake, Snell, Perry and Associates, a polling firm hired by the Dean campaign. 

The latest Field Poll suggests low turnout as well. According to the non-partisan survey group, only 55 percent of registered California voters are projected to cast ballots today. 

Like most political observers, Councilmember Kriss Worthington fears that voter disenchantment with the major party candidates for governor will keep many Berkeley voters away from polling stations. 

“The turnout will be really low because there is no liberal gubernatorial or presidential candidate to get excited about,” he said. 

Early indications attest to Worthington’s pessimism. Only about 150 voters cast ballots during two weeks of early voting this October, said City Clerk Sherry Kelly. In 2000 she said about 500 residents took advantage of early voting. 

History suggests that Berkeley voters are more likely to turnout for presidential elections than off-year elections. In 2000, 76 percent of registered voters cast ballots compared to 60 percent in 1998, the year of the last Mayoral election. 

But UC Berkeley student leaders say a surge of student registrations could boost turnout and affect two key races. 

Eight thousand students have registered to vote this semester, about 6,000 more than were registered during the 2000 campaign, said Jimmy Bryant Vice President of External Affairs for the Associated Students of the University of California. 

“This is the biggest voter drive we’ve ever done,” he said. Bryant said he hoped that between 40 to 50 percent of the newly registered voters will vote today. 

Students make up about 30 percent of the city’s population, but historically they choose not to vote or opt to vote via absentee ballot in their home towns. 

Bryant believes a large student turnout should help 8th Council District candidate Andy Katz, a UC Berkeley graduate student as well as progressive mayoral candidate Tom Bates. 

“Housing is the biggest issue for most students,” Bryant said. Both Katz and Bates support current rent control laws, while their most prominent opponents Gordon Wozniak and Mayor Shirley Dean both support eliminating rent control for wealthy tenants. 

Dean campaign manager, Bryan Schwartz, however, said he thinks a high student turnout could play into Dean’s hands. 

“We anticipate having a lot of student support,” Schwartz said, noting that the UC Berkeley newspaper the Daily Californian endorsed Dean Monday. 

There is no historical correlation between high voter turnout and success for either of Berkeley’s political factions. 

In 1994, the year Dean was first elected mayor and moderates won a council majority, 61 percent of all eligible voters cast ballots. In 1996, when progressives regained the a council majority, 60 percent of eligible voters turned out. 

Both mayoral candidates will do everything in their power to make sure their supporters get to polling places. The Dean and Bates campaigns will both provide cars for voters who otherwise would not be able to get to a polling station. They have also assigned local campaign captains for nearly every neighborhood to make sure that their supporters cast ballots. 

Voting itself will actually be more inconvenient this year. Berkeley will have only 77 polling stations for this election down from the usual 93. 

Bradley Clark, of the Alameda County Registrar’s Office, said stations were dropped because a new law allows any resident to vote by absentee mail ballot. 

The consolidation of voting stations will most adversely affect residents of the 7th Council District on a 3-block stretch north of campus from Hearst to Le Conte avenues, that is primarily home to students. They will have to go about 10 blocks to the nearest voting booth on Bancroft Way, on the other side of campus. 

Contact reporter at  

matt@berkeleydailyplanet.net