Page One

A city-commissioned voter survey predicts that over six out of 10 Berkeley residents would support a bond referendum for a $250 per year average increase in city property taxes in order to maintain city services at their current levels—which may or may not be good news, depending on how and when the city eventually presents the notion to voters. 

Support among Berkeley voters jumps to close to seven out of 10 if a property tax increase is combined with such measures as exempting low-income residents from the tax and including a sunset provision. 

The telephone survey was conducted earlier this month by EMH Market Research of Sacramento. 

Some combination of raising revenue and service cuts is necessary for the city to stave off a projected budget deficit of $8 million to $10 million next year. City Council ordered the survey with an eye towards a possible bond referendum on the March, 2004 ballot. 

The David Binder Research company of San Francisco drafted the survey, which has a plus-minus error rate of 4.9 percent. CEO David Binder is scheduled to discuss details of the survey results to City Council on October 14 at its 5 p.m. Budget/Ballot Measures working session. Binder reports a wide variety of research clients, including the cities of San Francisco and San Diego, EBMUD, State Senator John Burton, the California Teachers Association, the AFL-CIO, Kaiser Permanente and Pacific Bell. 

Surveyed residents listed education, homelessness, and housing as the “single most important issues facing Berkeley today.” 58 percent of the surveyed residents said Berkeley is moving in the “right direction,” while they felt just the opposite about California, with 68 percent feeling that the state was on the “wrong track.” 

A large majority, 71 percent, reported feeling that the city was doing a good job in providing city services. The figure dropped to only a plurality, 39 percent, who thought that the city was doing a good job at managing taxpayer dollars. 

City Manager Weldon Rucker said the results show “strong support for new tax measures in order to avoid service reductions” and “strong opposition to service cuts, especially in social, youth and senior, health, homeless and public safety programs.” Rucker also said the survey concluded that “voters are happy with the services provided by the city.” 

Deputy City Manager Phil Kamlarz said that the Binder survey served two purposes. “One was to see if there was a potential for (raising) new revenue. The second was to get some sense of priorities among citizens, so that if we have to make some reductions, (they can be based upon) feedback from the community about their priorities.” 

Berkeley citizens listed fire, emergency medical, and city-funded schools as their top three priorities for city services. Among their lowest priorities were downtown parking, new housing, and the building or business permit process. Presumably, City Council would begin making any necessary service cuts in the areas that citizens listed as its lowest priorities. 

The specific percentage of voter support for a bond measure is critical not just for possible passage, but also for its timing. A bond referendum to raise money for specific city programs—such as library or fire services—requires a two thirds vote for passage. A bond referendum for money to go into the city’s general fund only requires a majority vote. While the specific program bond referendum could be held as early as next March, by law a general fund bond referendum must be held during the city’s general election. The next Berkeley general election will be held in November of next year. 

Given the city’s looming projected budget shortfall for next year, Kamlarz listed what he called “intermediate steps” for the city to take in the event it was determined that all money could not be made up in a bond referendum next spring. “Instead of a big ballot measure in March we could go for a couple of smaller measures, just to shore up some of our deficiencies in some of our smaller funds.” he said. 

Kalmarz mentioned libraries, parks, and emergency medical services as among the most important needs. “There are a couple of strategies we’re playing around with. The survey helps inform that decision.” 

The survey included a telephone poll of 400 registered voters and was restricted to citizens with working telephone numbers who had voted in one of the last two primaries and one of the last two general elections. 

The sample population was somewhat older and whiter than Berkeley’s actual population. While more than 21 percent of Berkeley’s population is between 18 and 25, that age group only represented 12 percent of the surveyed residents. And while close to 17 percent of Berkeley’s residents are Asian and close to 14 percent African-American, the survey only included five percent from each group. Whites, who make up a little under 60 percent of Berkeley, accounted for 76 percent of the survey participants.