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SAN FRANCISCO—Outside of a Vietnamese coffee shop in the Tenderloin district, two older Vietnamese men are smoking and talking about Bush and Kerry. “Kerry did very well, but Bush came out solid and strong,” says Mr. Tinh Nguyen. “Kerry might still have a fighting chance. Too bad we are voting in California. We can’t help President Bush from here.”  

The scene reflects typical Vietnamese American voting patterns. A recent poll conducted before the debate by Bendixen and Associates and New California Media—a part of Pacific News Service—found that a whopping 71 percent of Vietnamese American said they would vote for George W. Bush, and only 27 percent for Kerry.  

It’s not surprising, coming from a community that considers Viet Dinh and Anh Nguyet Duong among its heroes. Dinh, as assistant to Attorney General John Ashcroft, drafted the Patriot Act, and Duong, called “the Bomb Lady” by the press, created the thermobaric or “bunker-busting” bomb that was mentioned in the first Bush-Kerry debate and was used against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Both Duong and Dinh had been boat people escaping communist Vietnam.  

While the number of Vietnamese registered to vote in 2000 was near 325,000, according to the U.S. Census, Sergio Bendixen, president of Bendixen and Associates, says the number of Vietnamese registered voters now could be as high as 600,000.  

“Their vote will be a little less than one percent of the total registered voters. If you were to look at the 18 battleground states, at most there will be 100,000 Vietnamese votes in those states,” Bendixen says.  

The numbers are small. On the other hand, given the tight race, a few thousands votes could very well make a big difference.  

But Francois Truong, on the other hand, says he definitely belongs to the 27 percent. An openly gay Vietnamese living in San Francisco, Truong says he can’t believe that Vietnamese would vote overwhelmingly for Bush. “I’d do anything to get Bush out.” What does he think of Vietnamese who support Bush? “They’re stupid. Haven’t they seen what happened to this country since Bush has been in office?” 

Nam Nguyen, publisher of Calitoday, the largest Vietnamese paper in San Jose, where over 100,000 Vietnamese reside, says he understands why Vietnamese will still turn out to vote, when many know that California will go for Kerry. “We are forming an impressive voting block. We are saying ‘I’m here, we’re here.’ This large block will solidify in the mind of local politicians... I think especially that’s important when it comes to the next governor’s race in California, where we need to have our voice heard.”  

The reasons Vietnamese Americans are voting for Bush are many, but it comes down essentially to this: Republicans are perceived as being strong against terrorism and, more important, communism. The majority of the Vietnamese population is foreign born who were once refugees fleeing communism, and many still remember what it was like to live under dictatorship. Senator Kerry, who fought in the Vietnam War, but turned into an anti war activist, is perceived by many as untrustworthy. Recently, Kerry blocked a bill that, in order to pressure Vietnam to end its human rights abuses, would have reduced U.S. aid to the country. His opposition to the bill solidified many Vietnamese in their decision to vote against him.  

Minh Tran, who lives in San Jose and who came to the United States in 1981 at age 22, for instance, said that Kerry doesn’t deserve his vote because “Kerry did not support the U.S. resolution against human rights violations in Vietnam.” 

In recent years, polls have also showed Vietnamese consistently voting conservative. Says Bendixen, “They are very conservative in the war of Iraq. On issues like gay marriage they are strongly against. On 9/11, they were very patriotic. So they tend to feel best represented by Republicans.”  

But those who are voting for Kerry are no less vocal. David Ho, on a Vietnamese-language chat room recently urged fellow Vietnamese Americans to rethink a vote for Bush. “With Bush in the White House the next four years, imagine where the U.S. will end up? Please think of the future of your children. Bush will cut all financial support that will help a better life for people in America and move that wealth to finance war in the Middle East.”  

And Pham Phan agrees: “In the last four years all the social supports have been dwindling while taxes for the richest 1 percent are cut. There is no security in America and no WMD in Iraq. Does Bush deserve our votes?”  

The Bendixen poll also found that among Asian Americans aged 18 to 39, only 27 percent would vote for Bush, versus 51 percent for Kerry. Calitoday publisher Nam Nguyen says that within another generation, Vietnamese Americans may become less conservative “as more and more are born in the United States, and their concerns are more domestic and not formed by Vietnam. 

“But,” Nguyen adds, “I don’t know. The next generation may just be as conservative as their parents.”