ECLECTIC RANT:Trump unlikely to be removed from office

Ralph E. Stone
Friday July 07, 2017 - 11:05:00 AM

Marchers across the country are calling for Trump's impeachment. In my opinion, it is extremely unlikely that Donald Trump will be removed as president of the United States through the impeachment process and here's why. 

It is conventional wisdom that a sitting president cannot be indicted for a criminal offense. The remedy is impeachment under the U.S. Constitution, Article II, section 4. The Constitution gives the U.S. House of Representatives the sole power to impeach an official, and it makes the U.S. Senate the sole court for impeachment trials. It takes only a majority vote in the House to impeach. It takes a 2/3 vote in the Senate to convict.  

Even if Trump obstructed an investigation into Russia's role in the 2016 presidential election or worse colluded with the Russians in the election, no Republican-controlled House is likely to vote out articles of impeachment against Trump and, even if it did, it would be extremely unlikely that 2/3 of the Senate would vote to convict.  

Hopes for impeachment lie mainly with a Democratic-controlled House in the midterm elections. Given the disarray of the Democratic Party, this is growing more and more unlikely. So far, the Republicans are 5-0 in special elections. Sure the special elections were in red states but it does indicate that hardcore Trump supporters and republicans in general are, for the most part, standing by Trump. They don't vote their self-interest; they vote their values. The democrats, on the other hand, are disorganized. And there is no guarantee that the special counsel's and other investigations will be completed before the midterm elections and if they are, there is no guarantee that any one or all will find Trump blameworthy. 

If Trump were to be impeached, he would be replaced by Vice President Mike Pence, who may be as bad for this country as Trump, but, unlike Trump, knows what he is doing. 

Clearly, this country is between a rock and a hard place.