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New: Trump’s Deterioration
Before the November 2024 election, many of us regarded Donald Trump as unfit for office because of his mental deterioration. Nonetheless, Trump won the election. Five months into his second term. Trump’s senility is a threat to the nation.
On June 16th, Trump abruptly left the G7 meetings in Canada. The official reason was to return to Washington to discuss the Israel-Iran conflict. Many observers believe that Trump’s staff convinced him to leave the gathering because they saw his erratic behavior was garnering unfavorable attention.
On June 12th, California governor Gavin Newsom bluntly assessed Trump: “He’s lost it,” Newsom said of Trump during a TV interview. “He is not the same person that I dealt with just four years ago, and he's incapable of even a train of thought…Trump doesn’t even know what day it is.”
Newsom is not a physician or psychologist, but many of us have observed that in unscripted public utterances, Trump rambles, sometimes to the point of incoherence. Of course, most Republicans are loathe to publicly criticize Trump but the rest of us are free to consider: How far gone is Trump? What are the consequences for his presidency?
Let’s consider Trump’s primary agenda:
1.Israel-Iran Conflict: At this writing, Trump is considering whether the US will join Israel’s attack on Iran. There are three primary considerations:
a. On June 13, Israel attacked Iran without explicit support from the US. Trump initially expressed surprise, then claimed he had been briefed by Netanyahu, and then – when Israel claimed air superiority – began referring to this as a joint Israel/US operation.
b. It’s unlikely that Israel can accomplish its military objective without destroying the Iranian underground nuclear sites (e.g., Fordo). Israel needs the participation of the US to do this: they require our “bunker-buster” bomb.
c. Judging from Israel’s record in Gaza, they have an inadequate plan for Iran after major hostilities cease.
On June 19th, Trump’s press secretary reported that he would decide within “two weeks.” Trump uses the phrase “two weeks” when stuck in a difficult situation. (You and I might instead say “I’m working on it.”) Trump has postponed the decision indefinitely.
While Donald dithers, we should push Congress to take this decision out of Trump’s hands.
2. Budget-Reconciliation Bill: Trump’s budget-reconciliation bill has stalled in the Senate. Trump was pushing to get this bill signed by July 4, but that won’t happen.
The latest Quinnipiac Poll ( https://poll.qu.edu/poll-
When the bill was being formulated, Trump promised there would be no cuts to Medicaid. Nonetheless, the House version of the bill made changes that would kick 8.6 million Americans off Medicaid; the Senate has proposed deeper cuts. Senator Hawley told CNN that Trump was unaware of the Senate action: “ I walked through the changes] with him and he said, oh, wow, that's very surprising. He said, I'm surprised that they made all these changes to the degree they did. I said, I am too. He was real clear to Senate Republicans just two weeks ago: Don't touch anything else on Medicaid.”
Trump has lost control of his budget bill.
On May 9th, Treasury Secretary Bessent told Congress the US debt ceiling must be increased by mid-July. Trump’s budget-reconciliation bill includes a debt ceiling increase. If this mammoth bill is not signed by mid-July, then there will have to be a separate bill to increase the debt ceiling. To pass, Republicans will need the support of Democratic legislators.
We need to do everything we can to slow down the budget-reconciliation bill.
3. Immigration: Disappointed by the latest deportation numbers. Trump’s assistant Stephen Miller recently increased the daily deportation quota to 3000. ( https://www.reuters.com/
The latest Quinnipiac Poll reports that only 43 percent of respondents support Trump’s stance on immigration (and only 40 percent support mass deportation).
On June 12th Trump decided to “soften” his mass deportation program: “Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long-time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.” Trump paused raids on farm, hotel, and hospitality workers. But within days this pause was lifted and ICE continued business as usual.
Trump has ceded control of immigration to Stephen Miller. We were able to turn Elon Musk into a pariah. Now we should focus on Stephen Miller.
4. Tariffs: On April 2nd, Trump unveiled double-digit tariff rates on US trading partners. The Trump tariff rate placed on each country was calculated by taking the U.S. trade deficit with each country and dividing it by that country’s exports to the U.S., then halving that figure. (An extremely unconventional approach.)
The latest Quinnipiac Poll indicates that only 38 percent of respondents support Trump’s approach to trade and tariffs.
Trump predicted that his reciprocal tariffs would result in dozens of new trade deals, “90 deals in 90 days.” We’re eighty days in and the results have been unimpressive: a partial trade agreement with Great Britain.
Trump has lost control of his tariff initiative. As a result, the US economy has stalled.
Summary: Gavin Newsom is right: Trump has lost his marbles.
As a result, Trump has lost control of his major agenda items: Iran, budget, immigration, and tariffs. In some cases, staff members have stepped in – Stephen Miller has assumed control of Trump’s “mass deportation” effort. But in other cases, Trump’s agenda is adrift. Trump lost control of the Israel-Iran conflict and ceded leadership to Netanyahu. Trump lost control of the budget-reconciliation bill and was replaced by competing Republican factions. Trump lost control of tariffs and the economy.
Five months in, it’s clear that Trump does not have the wherewithal to lead the United States. Instead of leadership he offers chaos and corruption.
The “No King’s Day” protests indicated the power of the resistance. We have seized the momentum and have a shot at blocking Trump’s fascist agenda.
