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What is happening in Vancouver is global, and describes what is happening in the SF Bay Area:

“We have incrementally quadrupled the density of Vancouver, but we haven’t seen any decrease in per square foot costs. That evidence is indisputable. We can conclude there is a problem beyond restrictive zoning. … No amount of opening zoning or allowing for development will cause prices to go down. We’ve seen no evidence of that at all. It’s not the NIMBYs that are the problem – it’s the global increase in land value in urban areas that is the problem.” Patrick Condon, Professor, Centre for Interactive Research on Sustainability, University of British Columbia

The classic pincer movement is being deployed against the people of Berkeley from within by a City Council majority: Jesse Arregùin, Lori Droste, Terry Taplin, Rashi Kesarwani and Rigel Robinson, and from the state led by (our own) Nancy Skinner and Buffy Wicks along with Scott Wiener, et al.

Assistance orchestrating this appears to be the handiwork of California Yimby, a prodevelopment organization lavishly funded by technology and real estate interests, which supports politicians who work to advance the Yimby platform and deploys lobbyists at the state and local level, i.e. East Bay for Everyone, while public relations works gullible journalists to place disinformation and propaganda nationally. The core mission of California Yimby is to remove local control of zoning and deregulate where deemed to be slowing down or getting in the way of development, and the tactics are disinformation, disruption and division.

The Council majority has recently unleashed a raft of up-zoning proposals, the writing of which closely follows the California Yimby playbook, with scant detail and a surfeit of deception regarding the possibility of what could be done by a speculative developer seeking to maximize possibilities and profit. The proposals range from a modest sounding quadplex to 7 story buildings, all without public notice, public hearing or right of appeal (‘ministerial’ approval in zoning speak), on nearly every property in Berkeley. Wait, this just in: ‘ministerial’ approval has been ‘withdrawn’? But will it be back, new and improved? It’s hard to keep up with the shell game. 

What is not talked about is how size, height, number of units and waivers of development standards (height, setbacks, open space, parking, etc) are dramatically impacted by state law (i.e. density bonus and Accessory Dwelling Units (ADU) which allows a density bonus of 50% increase and 3 stories on top of the base project. With 50% more units 35 feet becomes a possible ~70 feet for a quadplex, 70 feet becomes a possible ~100 feet for an ‘affordable’ project. Then add the frosting on top with 2 ADU units on the roof (luxury view penthouses)!  

All speculation of course, but that is the name of the game. The lack of information and explanation leaves the citizens reeling, asking questions which are not answered. 

Also what is not talked about is that the number of bedrooms per unit are unlimited by law. An increasingly common new apartment size is 6 bedrooms, and rents are priced at $1,000+ per month per bed, possibly with 2-4 occupants per bedroom, all legal. Nothing says you can not have a quadplex with 10 bedroom apartments on four floors(a half basement gets 4 floors in 35 feet), and that is before the option to add the 50% state density bonus. You can do the math. 

All of this is no secret to for-profit developers, who have been using the state density bonus to build 6-7 story big box apartment buildings popping up around town, with many more approved and waiting in the wings. The proposals are for much bigger projects through local up-zoning, and keep in mind that the larger the base project allowed under local zoning the larger the total allowed project under the state density bonus, over which Berkeley has no control. 

And that does not cover yet more ‘developer friendly’ state bills to come in 2021 thanks to Skinner, Wiener, et al, with a host of recycled, expanded and new bills coming up for a vote. What all these terrifying bills, stripping local control and enabling real estate interests, have in common is that the Council majority seems oblivious to the potential impact, or maybe they are just fine with it. Other cities are pushing back back with legal action. Will Berkeley? 

The depressing picture would not be complete without mentioning the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA), brought to you by the state and Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), which is the cudgel brow beating cities into submission. RHNA says Berkeley's new housing quota for 2023-2031 is 8,934 new units, most likely an impossible number to achieve. The penalty for non-compliance exacted by the state, again thanks to the Skinner/Wiener team, is the suspension of zoning by cities, allowing speculative developers a free-for-all. 

Several California cities have filed suit, charging that RHNA goals are impossible to achieve and designed to fail, with the penalty imposed precisely to further rampant speculative development. Oddly enough, Berkeley has not filed suit, as it perhaps should, perhaps because the current ABAG President is Mayor Arregùin? With the other four councilpersons supporting the proposals, the five constitute the majority voting bloc required to finish the job after the ‘community process’ has been endured. 

Taken as a whole, the actions of state and local politicians add up to a relentless campaign of zoning deregulation, the foremost agenda of capital interests. It is the age-old fight of Capital vs. Community; which side are you on? 

But wait, the proponents of the proposals say it is all to provide ‘affordable’ housing, maintaining that more (and more) housing is good housing, and will eventually open up for the low-income folks at a price they can afford, repackaging long discredited trickle-down supply-side economic theory. What is not recognized is that housing is currently in over-supply, and that it is low/moderate income affordable housing that is in under-supply. 

Meanwhile the increase in density causes increase in land value. Already, just floating irresponsible density increase proposals is accelerating the land rush, making all housing more expensive for everybody, so that eventually only people with enough money can afford to live in Berkeley. Consequence, or goal? 

So, how do you lower the cost of housing so that more people can afford to live in Berkeley? By requiring permanently affordable housing in enough critical mass to lower land value, the most expensive element in housing. Keywords: Non-Profits, Land Trusts, Co-ops, Social Housing. See Patrick Condon, author of Sick City. 

Now, how do you do this? 

Through a true community stakeholder based planning process, bringing together all stakeholders as co-collaborators, guided by qualified planning professionals. It takes commitment, time and work. And in the end, policymakers must respect and implement the conclusions the community has reached, unlike as was done for the Adeline Corridor Project, where Arregùin, et al voted at the last minute to add an extra floor of height (views!), a parting gift to developers, betraying the community that worked long and hard for a balanced outcome. 

On Thursday, March 25th the people of Berkeley have a voice in influencing the direction of the City when Council meets at 6pm to consider two proposals for community process to address Housing. The proposals may at a glance seem to be somewhat the same thing, but they are not: 

Proposal #1 brought forward by Arregùin, et al to support the morphing quadplex and ‘affordable’ proposals, etc, put forward by the councilperson majority that seems already decided what they want and are moving fast toward implementation. 

Proposal #2 brought forward by Sophie Hahn, Kate Harrison, Ben Bartlett and Susan Wengraf, is a genuine democratic community stakeholder based process without a preconceived outcome. 

This is the fork in the road, taking Berkeley in very different directions. 

Please choose Community and support #2! Present and future Berkeleyans will thank you!